The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2163
- Prev Close: 1.2169
- % chg. over the last day: +0.05%
By the end of Friday, EUR/USD showed uncertainty about the northern movement. Major currencies continue to trade near their highs of the year, while the euro is fixing around mid-December levels. On the daily chart, the technical characteristics show a significant decline in bullish potential with the likelihood of going into a deep correction.
- Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
- Resistance levels: 1.2222, 1.2283
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.2141 – 1.2222. The northward movement has slowed considerably. There are only small signs of further growth. The price is fixed above the moving averages and the MACD is above zero. But the ADX shows low upside potential.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below the level of 1.2141, the pair may move to a decline to 1.2077.
- – IFO Business Climate indicator for Germany (Jan) at 12:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3728
- Prev Close: 1.3681
- % chg. over the last day: -0.34%
The sterling showed a sharp decline on Friday. Services PMI data disappointed traders. A sharp contraction in the services sector and a faster-than-expected slowdown in production make Britain one of the most troubled regions in Europe. The economic recovery can be significantly delayed.
- Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
- Resistance levels: 1.3716, 1.3744
The main scenario in GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3716 and 1.3622. Despite the sharp drop on Friday, the southern impulse hasn’t been developed. The pair is recovering in the Asian session, while technical indicators are prone to a quick change in direction. This indicates a greater likelihood of sideways movement within Friday's range.
Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3622, it’s likely to return to 1.3517. A break at 1.3716 will indicate the renewed growth.
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 103.49
- Prev Close: 103.74
- % chg. over the last day: +0.24%
USD/JPY continues to ignore the position in the stock market, and it’s trading mainly following the dollar index. It looks like this pair has completely lost touch with risky assets. On Friday, PMI data was able to support the dollar, but the growth is insignificant, indicating the likelihood of continued trading in a narrow range.
- Support levels: 103.32, 102.89
- Resistance levels: 104.09, 104.40
The main scenario is trading in a range between 104.09 and 103.32. The ADX is reacting to the northern movement, which indicates the possibility of reaching the resistance level in the first place. The rest of the technical indicators are very weak. Lacking important statistics, volatility may remain low.
The alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.09. In this case, the pair may be able to return to 104.40 or higher. A break-through of 103.32 will indicate a continued decline.
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2632
- Prev Close: 1.2725
- % chg. over the last day: +0.73%
On Friday, the Canadian dollar showed a sharp rebound from the established highs, which may indicate that it has reached an overbought area against the dollar. It should be noted that the fall in USD/CAD last week was due to statements by the Bank of Canada. But since no changes in monetary policy are expected, a rebound is quite natural, and further southward movement without changes in oil prices may be difficult.
- Support levels: 1.2624, 1.2590
- Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2739 and 1.2624. In the Asian session, there is a pullback, which is followed by a slight rise in the ADX. This indicates the likelihood of a continuation of the southern correction. But as long as the price is above the moving averages, it’s difficult to expect a strong decline.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2624, the pair may resume its southward direction. A break-through of 1.2739 from the bottom up will indicate further growth.
by , 2021.01.25
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