Investors are increasingly concerned that the devastation of the Russian and Ukrainian economies and the looming economic damage in China due to the lockdowns will lead to further supply shocks, which will further spur commodity-fuelled inflation. But many experts believe that such a scenario is alreadу in prices, so investors should focus on the reporting period in the US and Europe.
Meta Platforms, Facebook's parent company, showed corporate revenue growth for the first quarter of 2022. Visa also boosted the broad market after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and said it expects further growth as travel costs pick up. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.19%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.21%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) traded without changes.
The dollar jumped to its highest level since the pandemic began. The dollar's rise remains unchanged: the Federal Reserve is on the verge of a series of aggressive rate hikes, while the other major central banks are not. Accordingly, US Treasury bond yields outpace the yields in developed countries, which leads to a smaller interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar.
Major European indices were trading higher yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.27% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR 40) added 0.48%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.46%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.53%.
European leaders have condemned Russia's attempt to "blackmail" Ukraine's allies with gas supplies. European Union energy ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the situation. At the same time, the Biden administration has approved additional requests for natural gas exports from the US as it tries to counter Russia's attempts to use fuel as a weapon against Ukraine's allies. Germany, Russia's biggest energy buyer, hopes to stop importing Russian oil within days but has warned that a Russian energy embargo or blockade will lead to a recession in Europe's largest economy.
On Wednesday, Canadian lawmakers voted unanimously to call Russia's actions in Ukraine "genocide". MPs said there was "sufficient evidence of systematic and massive war crimes against humanity" committed by Russia. The Canadian parliament said in its statement that Russia's war crimes include mass atrocities, the deliberate killing of civilians, desecration of corpses, forcible removal of children, torture, physical and mental harm, and rape.
Oil prices are trading above $100 a barrel. Lockdown in China remains the focus and is a major factor preventing prices from rising. However, analysts believe that amid such uncertainty and OPEC+'s inability to meet goals, oil prices will remain above the $100 a barrel mark. Last week, US crude inventories increased by 692,000 barrels, compared to analysts' expectations of 2 million barrels.
Asian markets traded without a single trend yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.78%. The Chinese yuan is falling sharply, and volatility is rising as the People's Bank of China tries to pull the economy out of recession. At a meeting of top economic officials on Tuesday, President Xi Jinping said that "every effort" should be made to stimulate construction to boost domestic demand.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain monetary policy despite the weakening yen and rising inflationary pressures due to higher import costs. Japan is a major energy importer, and sustained increases in gas and oil prices undermine Japan's trade terms. The central bank's board decided to maintain its overall monetary policy by setting 10-year rates at around zero and short-term rates at minus 0.1%, reaffirming its commitment to unlimited government bond purchases. Thus, it could contribute to the next round of weakening of the Japanese yen.
New Zealand businesses remain cautious about the economic situation. The latest ANZBO survey found that 42% of businesses expect overall economic conditions to worsen over the next year. The biggest concern of businesses at the moment is rising inflation. The poll also confirms that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months. Analysts expect the RBNZ to raise rates by another 50 bps in May and expect to raise rates by 25 bps at each meeting in the second half of the year.
Main market quotes:
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,183.96 +8.76 (+0.21%)
Dow Jones (US30) 33,301.93 +61.75 (+0.19%)
DAX (DE40) 13,793.94 +37.54 (+0.27%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,425.61 +39.42 (+0.53%)
USD Index 102.97 +0.66 (+0.65%)
- – Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 01:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Press Conference (tentative);
- – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
by , 2022.04.28
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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