The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2128
- Prev Close: 1.2105
- % chg. over the last day: -0.19%.
The EUR/USD lost 0.19% intraday amid positive US data. A bearish engulfing candlestick has been formed on the daily chart, which casts doubt on the growth of the pair in the short term. In the credit market, the bond yield spread widened significantly in favor of the US dollar, and the southern pullback may continue for some time.
- Support levels: 1.2081, 1.2059
- Resistance levels: 1.2155, 1.2189
The main trading scenario for the EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.2081 – 1.2125. The pair's decline was stopped near the support level, which allows us to expect another northern bounce. The same is indicated by the ADX, which has reacted very weakly to the southern impulse. At the same time, the position of the MACD and moving averages indicates selling within the range as safer trades.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the level of 1.2081, the pair may continue to decline to 1.2059. A breakthrough of 1.2125 could bring the pair back to 1.2155.
- – The US Core Retail Sales (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – The Publication of the FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3901
- Prev Close: 1.3898
- % chg. over the last day: -0.02%
The sterling showed only a symbolic decline after the publication of data in the US on Tuesday. However, the northern trend is slowing down. A doji candlestick has formed on the daily chart, which is a signal of a stop of the movement or a possible price reversal.
- Support levels: 1.3775, 1.3680
- Resistance levels: 1.3950, 1.4000
The main scenario for the GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3860 – 1.3950. On the hourly timeframe, there are signs of the price stopping with the likelihood of further decline. The ADX reacted significantly to the southern impulse on Tuesday, suggesting the emergence of bearish strength in the pair. But until the price breaks below the SMA 100, the pair may remain in the range.
Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3860, it may return to 1.3775. A breakthrough of 1.3950 will resume growth.
- – The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (y/y) (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 105.35
- Prev Close: 106.03
- % chg. over the last day: +0.66%
On Tuesday, the dollar-yen pair showed the largest daily gain since January 7. The pair continues to catch up with the stock market, with which it usually correlates to a large extent. The rise in government bond yields is also helping to depreciate the Japanese yen.
- Support levels: 105.10, 104.40
- Resistance levels: 106.12, 106.55
The main scenario is buying. On Tuesday, northern momentum indicated strengthening bullish pressure. The moving averages show a sharper upward trajectory. But the ADX is already close to the overbought area, which indicates the likelihood of a stop.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 105.60. In this case, the pair may go for a correction to 105.10.
- – The US Core Retail Sales (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – The Publication of the FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2636
- Prev Close: 1.2686
- % chg. over the last day: +0.40%
The pair bounced off January lows, pointing to strong support around 1.2590. Corrective growth was supported by positive data in the US and a southern pullback in the oil market. However, there are no fundamental reasons for a price reversal. The growth can still be used to build up short positions.
- Support levels: 1.2590, 1.2550
- Resistance levels: 1.2763, 1.2781
The main scenario is buying. The ADX and the MACD have sharply changed the position. The potential trend has reversed to the north and indicates an upward direction as true. As long as the price is above the moving averages, growth may continue but will be limited by the first resistance level. The south trend can be expected to resume at any moment.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below 1.2679, the pair may resume its decline to the level of 1.2590.
- – The US Core Retail Sales (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – The Canada Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – The Publication of the FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
by , 2021.02.17
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